I've been fascinated by the migrant crisis enveloping Germany, which is why I've been posting so much about it. But frankly, I think I've made all the points and predictions that I thought worth making.
I'll sum up the points I've made in the previous month:
- Germany is going to accept something like 1 million migrants this year.
- These people were not screened in any way. Many are legitimate refugees from Syria, many aren't. Germany currently has only the most basic information about who these people are.
- Germany is not prepared to handle anything like this number of new residents.
- Between 1/3 and 1/2 of these migrants are not refugees and do not qualify for political asylum, and therefore don't have any legal reason to be on German soil.
- Most of these migrants come from profoundly dysfunctional countries with primitive educational systems.
- Almost none speak German, and only about 5-10% speak proficient English.
- Perhaps 15-20% of the entire mass of migrants have college degrees or the equivalent. Because of the dismal quality of universities in much of the developing world, they will likely not be trained to anywhere near the level of the graduate of a German university, no matter how clever and motivated they may be.
- Probably at least 15-20% are illiterate, and many others likely have modest cognitive ability. This means they will never learn to speak anything but primitive pidgin German.
- The majority of these migrants are conservative Muslims, and probably 5-10% would qualify as extremists. Syrian immigrants themselves have repeatedly warned that there are some terrorists and radicals among the migrants.
- The economic migrants chose Germany as their destination because they believe Angela Merkel 'invited' them and that the German state is going to give them a place to live, money and a job. Almost none appear to have given serious thought to whether they want to or can adapt long-term to a radically different culture.
- Under current German law, many migrants will be able to secure 'family reunification' visas and be able to bring 3-4 more family members into Germany in the coming years.
- Germany's system for deporting illegal migrants is broken. Under current law and practice, it is effectively impossible to deport someone who really wants to stay, even if they lied to German authorities, have no legal right to be in Germany, and have committed serious crimes.
- Germany does not have anywhere enough available housing to provide a brick-and-mortar accommodation to all of these migrants.
- Hundreds of incidents have conclusively demonstrated that many of these immigrants come from ethnic and religious groups which have long-standing conflicts, and that they have brought these conflicts to Germany.
I think that about covers it. Now for a few predictions. These predictions are based on the fact that, as of now, German political leaders responsible for actually dealing with migrants (not newspaper columnists or public-radio talking heads) know that they face a severe crisis.
- In the next year or so, Germany is going to radically change its laws on asylum, family reunification, border security, and deportation. If the German Basic Law needs to be changed to make this happen, it will be changed.
- To try to reduce violence in overcrowded shelters, German authorities will begin seizing commercial and residential real estate properties.
- Working- and lower-middle-class Germans will perceive the new migrants as a threat, and will resent the fact that new migrants get housing, cash, and special education and other services for free, while working-class Germans struggle to make ends meet on meager salaries.
- The current cost estimate for dealing with this crisis, something like €10-12 billion, will turn out to be a hopeless underestimate. Lucky profiteers, whether they make mattresses, cots, portable toilets, or containers, will make millions in windfall profits as German officials desperately struggle to accommodate too many migrants. Same thing for landlords.
- Germany will try to place migrants in underpopulated areas in the east of Germany, but they will not stay there.
- The currently most 'respectable' anti-immigrant/Euroskeptic party, the Alternative for Germany, will start getting 15-20% of the vote in the east, and 10-15% in the west.
- The migrant crisis will further damage the German Social Democratic Party, which is already struggling.
- Germany is not being invaded, is not going to collapse, and will of course never be 'Islamized'. Those are mindless rhetorical exaggerations. Germany has needlessly imported a galaxy of new, expensive, insoluble social problems, but it will muddle through.
That about covers it. I don't anticipate any major new developments now, except that the problems we already see will continue to exist and, in many cases, get worse.
So from tomorrow on, I'll post about the migrant crisis once a week at most. I've basically said all there is to say. Now time to move on to the pleasures, delights, and curiosities of live in Germany. And other, completely unrelated topics.
Citizens, my work here is done. You may now return to your normal activities.