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Germany Has Already Imported an Inevitable Increase in Violent Crime

It's good to be smart, for a lot of reasons. One of them is that higher intelligence is associated with a lower lifetime risk of being the victim of a crime:

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The abstract:

Intelligence has been linked to antisocial, violent, and criminal behaviors. Surprisingly, however, there is a lack of research examining whether intelligence differentially affects the risk for personal victimization. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by examining whether adolescent levels of verbal intelligence are related to the odds of personal victimization in adolescence and adulthood. This study analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). The results revealed a statistically significant and consistent association between intelligence and victimization. Persons with lower intelligence were more likely to report being victimized even after controlling for the effects of violent criminal behavior. Future research would benefit by examining more closely the association between IQ score and the risk for victimization over the life course.

Note the first sentence: "Intelligence has been linked to antisocial, violent, and criminal behaviors." More to the point, lack of intelligence has been linked to higher levels of antisocial, violent, and criminal behaviors. Hundreds of studies establish this correlation, in dozens of different cultures.

This is why cognitive ability is important in the German immigration debate. If you decide to let 800,000 young males into your country in a single year, it is extremely important to know what their level of cognitive ability is, for a very simple reason: the lower the level of cognitive ability, the higher the propensity, on average, to commit violent and antisocial acts.

Let me insert the necessary qualifications: this does not mean that every low-IQ immigrant will commit a violent crime, or even that most will. Nor does this mean that you can predict what any one individual immigrant will do on the basis of broad studies.

What this does mean, though, is that if (1) a group of young male immigrants have a profile of low cognitive ability; and (2) you let very large numbers of them into your country -- you will then have a marked increase in antisocial behavior and violent crime.

This is inevitable.

It is baked-in.

There is no way to avoid it.

Let's add a few factors to indicate the German situation. The typical 2015 young male immigrant to Germany:

  1. Is now for the first time freed from the social constraints which strictly limit antisocial behavior back home (reputation in the community, threat of violent retribution from own/victims' kin).
  2. Speaks no German and has zero understanding of the host country's culture, customs, and history.
  3. Has nothing to do all day, since he cannot legally work until his immigration status is clarified, and likely has no relevant job skills in any case.
  4. Has, for the first time in his life, unrestricted access to cheap alcohol.

All these factors point in the same unpleasant direction: No matter what the German government does, no matter what policies it follows, no matter how many unpaid hours volunteers put in, Germany will see a significant rise in antisocial activity and violent crime in Germany in the coming years driven by migrants.

Any analysis of migration policy that tries to deny or ignore these fact is fundamentally dishonest.

To link back to the study above, the primary victims of this increase in violent crime will be Germans with lower cognitive ability and less education. That is, the ones who live in the lower-middle-class and working-class neighborhoods where migrant shelters are now being erected -- generally against the will of nearby residents. It is these people who will be most exposed to the increased dangers and risks of uncontrolled immigration.

And when they quite rationally react to this situation with anger and disgust, they will be insulted and mocked. By the very educated urbanites who created and supported the policy in the first place.

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